• October 2015
• >
• Features

Looking toward 2016 with the influencers of the 2015 Texas Tribune Festival

Your guide to the issues.

Even though the 2016 election is more than a year away, it seems to be everywhere: on the news, sprinkled into Facebook feeds and popping up in casual dinner conversation. If you haven’t brought yourself up to speed on the issues yet, don’t worry! We’ve got a rundown of the big issues you’ll likely see in the upcoming debates and viewpoints from three Texas Tribune Festival panelists.

The Issues

The Economy

Election after election, the economy is perhaps the No. 1 issue for voters, and 2016 will be no exception, as the nation recovers from the Great Recession. For Democrats, the focus is largely on income inequality, with many candidates emphasizing higher taxes for the 1 percent and increasing the minimum wage, while Republicans are likely to focus on lowering taxes for individuals and small businesses to boost economic growth.
 

Related Texas Tribune Festival Panels to Attend:
Is the Boom Over?
Oct. 17, 8:30 a.m.

One on One With Glenn Hegar
Oct. 17, 11:10 a.m.

 

Health Care

Early on in the race, we’ve already seen a focus on the Affordable Care Act from both Democratic and Republican candidates. Most Republican candidates are calling for a repeal of the ACA, or favor replacing it with a plan that encourages consumer choice and competition among insurance companies, while most Democratic candidates want to preserve and expand the ACA. 

Related Texas Tribune Festival Panels to Attend:

A Medicaid Reality Check
Oct. 17, 8:30 a.m.

After King v. Burwell, Now What?
Oct. 17, 11:10 a.m.

 

Education

In the first GOP debate, the Common Core State Standards Initiative was a hot issue, with many Republicans divided about the standards’ effectiveness. Early on, many Republican and Democratic candidates have highlighted the importance of improving early childhood education and school choice. The steep cost of higher education and rising student-loan debt are two big issues for both sides. Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders has even proposed a plan for free tuition at all public colleges.

Related Texas Tribune Festival Panels to Attend:

Why Pre-K Matters
Oct. 17, 9:50 a.m.

Charters, Choice and Accountability
Oct. 17, 1:45 p.m.

 

Immigration Reform

Texans will surely pay very close attention to what the candidates are saying about immigration in 2016. All five Democratic candidates support a path to citizenship, while Republican candidates are mixed on the issue. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are two notable party outliers who support earned legal status for undocumented people, while other Republican candidates are voicing their opposition to amnesty and calling for tighter border security.

Related Texas Tribune Festival Panels to Attend:

A Border Reality Check
Oct. 17, 11:10 a.m.

Hispanic Votes Matter
Oct. 17, 8:30 a.m.

 

Foreign Policy

The Syrian Civil War, the threat of ISIS and Iran’s nuclear program are guaranteed to be prominent topics in 2016, and candidates will have to show strong foreign-policy experience to succeed in the debates. On the Republican side, Jeb Bush will likely have to contend with his brother’s and father’s foreign-policy decisions during their presidencies, while Hillary Clinton is expected to play up her experience as former secretary of state to strengthen her platform.

 

Related Texas Tribune Festival Panels to Attend:

One on One With Nancy Pelosi
Oct. 17, 1:45 p.m.

America’s Place in the World
Oct. 17, 3:05 p.m.

 

The Environment

Climate change was a huge issue in the last election, and it’s here to stay in 2016. We’re also likely to hear candidates voice their opinions on the Keystone XL Pipeline, which Republican candidates support for the boon it would bring to the economy. And no matter their opinions on climate change, Republican and Democratic candidates alike are sure to champion the environmental and economic benefits of innovative renewable-energy solutions.

 Related Texas Tribune Festival Panels to Attend:

A Water Reality Check
Oct. 17, 8:30 a.m.

The Fight Over Climate
Oct. 17, 9:50 a.m.

 

Human Rights

In April, protests lasted for weeks in Baltimore after African-American Freddie Gray died in police custody. In June, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of marriage equality. In July, President Obama called for the end of solitary confinement for prisoners at the annual NAACP national convention. Throughout the year, several states have passed laws banning abortion after 20 weeks, following Texas’ example. Given all that’s transpired in 2015, it’s difficult to imagine that conversations about police violence, race issues, the criminal justice system and lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and women’s rights wouldn’t make it to the national stage next year.

Related Texas Tribune Festival Panels to Attend:

Reform is the New Black
Oct. 17, 8:30 a.m.

Gay Rights, States’ Rights
Oct. 17, 4:25 p.m.

 

Expert Opinions

The 2015 Texas Tribune Festival panelists share their 2016 election predictions.

 

Erica Grieder

Texas Monthly senior editor and author of Big, Hot, Cheap, and Right: What America Can Learn from the Strange Genius of Texas

Austin Woman: What will be the most important economic issue in 2016?

Erica Grieder: We continue to be in an economic recovery that doesn’t feel like recovery for a lot of middle-class and working-class Texans. We’re seeing some job growth but stagnant wages. Meanwhile, the cost of higher education and real estate are rising out of proportion to people’s ability to invest in those things. Generally, as a country, we’re in a period where in the last two decades, there’s been a tremendous amount of global technological and political change, so much that the American economy and certain industries have fundamentally altered. So for a lot of people in the country, there’s a sense that the old way of life has changed, and we don’t know what the new way is or how to achieve it.

AW: What are the issues you feel the voters will be paying the most attention to?

EG: On the Republican side, there’s a concern about illegal immigration, which I think is sort of a red herring; the actual concern is more about opportunity. On the Democratic side, we’re seeing that concern about opportunity focused on issues like wages, higher education and racial and social justice. For everybody, the biggest issue is opportunity, an ongoing chance to believe in the American Dream.

 

AW: You recently wrote a lengthy profile of Ted Cruz for {Texas Monthly}. What do you think draws people to him?

EG: I think they like his adversarial attitude towards Washington and his known willingness to fight things like Obamacare. It’s funny because, in a way, his temperament is sort of an erudite nerd than a backslapping guy. He has a sort of eloquence when he’s speaking; you can tell he’s smart. I think they like hearing somebody who’s measured, reasoned and articulate talk about his desire to shake up the establishment in D.C.

At the 2015 Texas Tribune Festival, Erica Grieder will moderate a one-on-one session with Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar, Oct. 17 at 9:50 a.m.

 

Campbell Brown

Former TV journalist and co-founder of The Seventy Four, the74million.org

Austin Woman: What are some of the problems with the educational system you think candidates should address during their campaigns?

Campbell Brown: The biggest challenge is how we ensure that education remains the path to social mobility in this country. Under the current system, if you are born in a neighborhood with a failing school, you don’t have the opportunity to use education to create a better life for yourself. There’s inequality that exists throughout the system that has to be addressed. We have to make sure every parent has a say and has a choice when it comes to their child’s education. Unfortunately, the way the current system is designed traps families and kids in failing schools and doesn’t give them a pathway out. We’ve grappled with this problem for far too long and let too many kids fall through the cracks. I hope that we hear all the candidates talk about it.

 

AW: During the education summit you recently hosted, what were the main talking points you heard from candidates?

CB: The summit focused solely on education and what the candidates could do at the federal level to encourage states to make children the focus of all educational decisions. For Republicans, there’s been a lot of focus on the common core. Many of the Republican candidates initially supported it, and have since changed their positions in response to a lot of outrage from families around standardized testing.

There’s been a push from a few of the candidates Jeb Bush and John Kasich to emphasize raising standards for all children across the country to ensure they are ready for the 21st century economy. There was also an emphasis on more school choice, and what we can do to incentivize charter schools and tax-credit programs to ensure that families get more options.

We’re holding a second summit for Democrats this month. On the Democratic side, it’s not clear where they’ll land on many of these issues. Hillary Clinton still remains the frontrunner, and although she won the endorsement of one of the largest teachers’ unions in the country, she hasn’t actually talked about her position on K-12 education yet. President Obama was an education-reform advocate and pushed for the expansion of charter schools, but for now, it’s unclear where other Democrats will be on many of those issues.

 

AW: What do you think the general conversation about education will be like during the election?

CB: When you look at the polls, people say education is one of the issues they care most about, but oftentimes, when we get to the big debates, there’s hardly an education question. The 2000 campaign was the last time education was a major focus of a candidate, as it was with George W. Bush, when he was pushing what led to No Child Left Behind.

I think this campaign has the ability to be unique for a couple of reasons. On the Republican side, we have Jeb Bush, who is passionate about education and has spent more time in office working on education issues than anybody else. We also have layered with that the debate around Common Core, where he’s driven most of the conversation. A lot of governors who are running really have hands-on experience trying to implement education reform in their state, and they want to talk about it.

We’re also hearing a lot about higher education, affordability and universal pre-K. I think that’s a really important conversation we need to start having in this country, and hopefully, we’ll see more focus and attention on those things in the campaign.

 At the 2015 Texas Tribune Festival, Campbell Brown will moderate the Charters, Choice and Accountability panel, Oct. 17 at 1:45 p.m.

 

Karen Tumulty

National political correspondent for The Washington Post

Austin Woman: What will be the most important issues in the 2016 election?

Karen Tumulty: Certainly, Donald Trump has elevated immigration to a degree that people wouldn’t necessarily have expected. I think it will continue through the primary season, whether Trump proves to be a durable phenomenon or not.

Going into next November, this will be an election where foreign policy plays a bigger role than it has in any election since 2004. The world is looking like such a scary place right now, and figuring out what the role of American leadership is in the whole equation is going to be very much on the minds of voters.

The state of the economy is always at the top of voter concerns, but with the economic recovery looking like it’s already there, it may not be as big of an issue as it has been in the last couple of cycles. I think all of the candidates will be looking for ways to address the question of wages, whether they frame it as income inequality or economic mobility, and that will be a bigger issue than in previous elections.

 

AW: You’ve covered Hillary Clinton’s email scandal extensively. How do you think it will affect her campaign?

KT: The problem is, with the involvement of the Justice Department and specifically the FBI, she is no longer in a position where she can put this to rest. It’s going to play out on the Justice Department’s timetable and not the political calendar. For the foreseeable future, we’ve got these monthly releases of her emails coming out under a court order, and that’s because of a Freedom of Information lawsuit. What we’re seeing is that it’s taking a real toll on her poll numbers, not in the horse race, but in how people regard her in terms of her trustworthiness.

 

AW: You have also written a lot on health-care reform. What issues will dominate the conversation about health care in the election?

KT: We’re seeing a realization here that the Affordable Care Act is here to stay. At some point, the Republicans are going to have to come forward with some ideas on how they would fix it if they don’t like it. A repeal of the ACA looks pretty unrealistic. The longer the law is in place and the longer people are signing up for it, it’s going to be harder and harder to overturn.

 

AW: What will be the biggest challenges for Republicans and Democrat candidates?

KT: Very rarely in our history does one party get three bites of the apple in a row. It happened with George H. W. Bush, but it’s very unusual and it’s one of the biggest things the Democratic nominee would have to face. For both parties, the big challenge is that they have become the products of their extremes. The reality of politics in a situation where everything is so polarized: You don’t win by persuading people; you win by getting your base more revved up than their base. There are not a lot of voters that cross lines.

 

AW: You recently sent your son off to college. Do you think the cost of higher education and student-loan debt will be a big campaign issue?

KT: Absolutely, and it’s an issue that young people feel very strongly about. One challenge, particularly for the Democrats, is getting what they call the Obama coalition to the polls because there’s no evidence they vote in big numbers unless Obama is on the ticket. So they’ll have to find issues that motivate minorities and young people to get out and vote, and student debt is a huge one.

At the 2015 Texas Tribune Festival, Karen Tumulty will moderate a one-on-one session with 2016 Democratic candidate for president Lawrence Lessig, Oct. 17 at 8:30 a.m.

 

 

The 2015 Texas Tribune Festival

The Texas Tribune Festival features more than 200 national and local politicians, journalists, thought leaders and advocates who are passionate about issues that affect all Texans. The festival offers more than 50 sessions on education, health care, transportation, energy, the environment, criminal justice and more, with a focus on how Texas plays a role in national politics.

Badges for the three-day festival are $300 through Oct. 8, but students and educators can attend the fest for a discounted price of just $50. Texas Tribune members get $50 off their registration fee.

The festival takes place Oct. 16 through 18 at the University of Texas. Visit texastribune.org/festival/2015/home for information on speakers, panels and special events.

 

Photos courtesy of the Texas Tribine Festival.

---